Celebrating in 2021 – Yes – No – Maybe: This decision is currently on the mind of everyone who has something to celebrate in 2021. It's currently March 2021, and the federal government has presented new COVID-19 regulations and a reopening plan. Therefore, it's worth considering and weighing the pros and cons of whether or not to celebrate in 2021. Spoiler alert: I personally remain skeptical. I'll explain why in the following text...
2021 still feels like 2020...
Not much has happened in the first three months of 2021. The lockdown is still in place, and otherwise, not much is happening in the events sector unless you jump on the live streaming bandwagon and try to reach your fans and customers that way, which sometimes works better, but in most cases rather worse, and I don't just mean technically...
In the first week of March, there was another conference of state premiers, and while the lockdown was extended again, there were also relaxations for certain areas of public life. Guess who was once again overlooked or only half-heartedly considered? Exactly: the restaurant, hotel, and events industries. And if we're honest, arts and culture were given a "bite of normality," but since everything now depends on the incidence rate in the municipality, it offers anything but planning security. Attached is an overview graphic showing what is now allowed to relax restrictions and under what conditions...
Clear and simple looks quite different, and with the entire regulatory situation during the pandemic, everything is becoming even more confusing. The decree is valid until March 28, 2021, and the next conference is already scheduled for March 22, 2021. What can already be said, however, is that, currently and I fear that future decrees will also keep the hospitality industry and the private and public events sector on a tight leash.
The focus here is now increasingly on self-testing, although there's still no strategy for how information about a positive rapid COVID-19 self-test should reach the public health authorities. In other words, it's going to be interesting, because, as has already become known , some people don't take a positive test result very seriously...
MUCBOOK has very nicely broken down and presented the decisions, which you can read here...
Prospects for private events are rather bleak...
Since the incidence rate is once again being used as a metric, and this varies from municipality to municipality, it causes confusion and, above all, uncertainty. For example, if a couple from Munich wants to get married in Freising, they have to use the incidence rates in Freising, not those in Munich. Because the differences in the rates are so significant and fluctuate so frequently, it's impossible to make a reliable prediction that would allow for wedding planning and ensure that the celebration can actually take place.
A cynic might suspect foul play here, perhaps even that this is intentional. On the one hand, it's understandable, because in 2020, many private events turned out to be superspreader events, where contact tracing sometimes proved problematic. Therefore, I think politicians will exercise extreme caution to prevent a repeat of the 2020 situation, especially considering the ongoing mutations.
The current decree would even allow outdoor leisure events for up to 50 people from April 5th, 2021, but let's be honest, climate change or not, the weather in Germany in April isn't really stable enough to plan a private outdoor party...
Pass me the crystal ball, or how things might turn out...
The following is pure speculation on my part, and we'll see what happens, or doesn't happen. I can imagine that from May onwards, private indoor celebrations, such as weddings and birthdays, will be possible again. The number of participants will likely be tied to the respective incidence rate, including a negative COVID-19 test for all invited guests, which must be no more than 24 hours old.
For the hospitality industry, there will likely be a twice-weekly testing requirement for all employees and service providers working on-site. The recording of contact details will certainly continue, and here I hope that the federal government and the states finally come up with a practical digital solution or join forces with Smudo's LUCA app and finally launch it nationwide.
Clubs and discos, as well as larger festivals, will have to wait until a certain number of people have been vaccinated before they can reopen and take place. In the club and disco sector, I could imagine that they might be allowed to reopen, but only with strict hygiene protocols, limited capacity, contact tracing, and a rapid COVID-19 self-test for each guest that is no more than 24 hours old.
These would be possibilities, but as we all know, things usually turn out differently than expected...
Should we continue planning and hoping for 2021, or postpone it...?
This isn't a simple question, because I don't think that events or celebrations will be possible within a reasonable framework until June 2021. What will happen from July onwards remains to be seen, depending on how quickly the federal government progresses with vaccinations. This will certainly drag on, regardless of whether there will be a sufficient supply of vaccines. It will likely be slowed down because there are still too many vaccine skeptics who don't want to be vaccinated, for whatever reason. (Discussions about vaccination are not welcome here, as everyone still has the right to decide for themselves, but one should nevertheless consider whether one wants to be a part of society or rather banish oneself to a deserted island with anti-vaxxers.)
The whole vaccination thing in Germany is such a never-ending story, because in the US, for example, they're already vaccinating great apes. Not that I have anything against that, I actually think it's great, but you can see here in Germany that this would never be possible. In our country, anyone who tries to get vaccinated ahead of schedule is subjected to a shitstorm, even if the vaccine would have had to be thrown away if no replacement could be found for the missed appointment. Strange times, strange world, that's all I can say...
What does this mean for private celebrations and parties? Ultimately, everyone has to decide for themselves, but if you look at the general information and data objectively and neutrally, there will be celebrations and parties again this year, but only very few, with many restrictions, and only within a small timeframe. As a rough guideline, all my company events have already been postponed to 2022, as no company can afford to make headlines as a superspreader event after a corporate function. In this area, too, all hopes are pinned on vaccination...
Easter and Pentecost as milestones for a possible easing of restrictions in the events sector...
The next few weeks and months will definitely be interesting, because Easter is at the end of March and Pentecost at the end of May. We've all seen how infection rates developed around Christmas and beyond. The lockdown, which was implemented here as a containment measure, is still in effect, and I fear that because many still haven't learned their lesson (although there are more of them now than before, corona fatigue and the desire for freedom are also increasing), contact restrictions and the avoidance of tourist travel will be, to put it mildly, ignored again at Easter and Pentecost. This, in turn, will drive infection rates up again, including the faster spread of mutations. And if things go really badly, we'll have another stricter lockdown after Easter that will then last until Pentecost.
The only thing that might work in our favor is consistently warm temperatures from May onwards, as this would at least allow public life outdoors to resume. Although, as the past has shown, even outdoors, people tend to disregard social distancing rules...
The first half of 2021 was and will not be easy; quite the opposite, in fact, because it will show whether our society has the discipline to persevere and implement all logical and necessary measures, or whether the behavioral patterns "nothing will happen to me," "I'm being careful," and "I won't let anyone stop me from traveling" will prevail, and we will find ourselves in a "stop-and-go lockdown spiral" until 2024...
In any case, stay healthy and sensible, for all of us...
